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December 09, 2008

PMA 2009 Rumors, Speculation and Predictions

PMA returns to its regular time period in 2009. As you may recall, 2008 was an exception, where we had PMA take place the last week of January instead of later on. PMA 2009 happens on March 3 to 5, 2009 in Vegas... This post will be updated many many times before the PMA show starts, so be sure to bookmark it - here is the permalink.

But it's never too early to fire up the rumoralia hot stove, so let's get started! Please note that these are a blend of rumors, speculation, predictions and open-ended questions - they do not include any inside information!

If we missed a rumor, or if you have found something juicy, let us know!


New Rumors, Etc



New updates are posted at the new Rumor Diary



Since the PMA 2009 trade-show is over, it is time to start a new Rumor Diary. All the new updates will be posted there. Be sure to adjust your bookmarks to the new Rumor Diary permalink.

Rice High has translated an interview with a Pentax official (okay, Hoya) given at DC Watch. Thera are some interesting tidbits there, but no dramatic new news.

Is a more advanced Pentax DSLR coming this summer, or is it all lost in the translation? This thread goes on and on.

NikonWatch.com recaps the rumors that never came to be at PMA 2009.

Amateur Photographer was told by Panasonic that a compact Micro 4/3rds camera body is not out of the question. However, no time-frame was given for such a potential product. But certainly a welcome development.

TechCrunch rumorizes that ...Cisco is buying Pure Digital, the makers of "Flip Video".

Fuji is not done with DSLRs, but at the same time, they don't have one in the pipeline. That's what Fuji told PDN Gear Guide.

The R-series ceases production but it is not dead. It will get some infusion from the S2 medium formatoids.

Four Thirds is secure with lots of products in the pipeline. That's what Olympus Japan representatives told Four Thirds User.

The mention of a Vivitar DSLR with an 8mp sensor disappears from the Amateur Photographer UK article. It may have been a mistake? We do not know.

Samsung will let Pentax decide on when to launch the next "GX" DSLR. GX is the name Samung uses for the Pentax K10D and K20D series of DSLRs. More at Amateur Photographer.

Pentax revives plans for their digital medium format camera!

CameraRumors has spotted a website saying that the Olympus Micro Four Thirds have June availability. Is Olympus planning to announce the camera after they release it? :-)

The Amateur Photographeur UK has a hot story - Leica have not ruled out the possibility of Micro Four Thirds!

Scott of TWiP Photo confirms via Twitter that there will not be Nikon or Canon dSLRs announced at PMA 2009.

Olympus disappoints as they have nothing new to show and nothing new to say about their Micro Four Thirds projects.

Panasonic says they continue with "Four Thirds DSLRs". Quote from CNet Underexposed

"Panasonic will continue with its Four Thirds SLRs, said Dave Briganti, national marketing manager for Panasonic's consumer electronics company, but they won't be at the forefront of the company's product line."

Confirmation of the above is also mentioned at AP UK

Thom Hogan speculates that the next announcement from Nikon will likely come in June 2009.

Official from Panasonic: Lumix GH1 camera and two lenses!!!

Dreaming of a Canon 1D Mark IV at Pro Photo Home. This is speculation, not a rumor/leak.

Scott of TWiPPhoto twits that there is an 8:30am Vegas-time Panasonic press conference on Tuesday! That means the Olympus twit below must also be true!

Sony shows six concept lenses, including a big telephoto of undisclosed focal length.

Twitter buzz says new cameras from Olympus and Panasonic. Does it mean new-new or the already-announced ones? Fingers-crossed for new-new!

Let's Go Digital leaks the Kodak Easyshare Z915, a 10X "fun zoom" camera. This actually looks like a fun-zoom and perhaps Kodak has a chance to take-on the entry-level of the funzoom, eg the SX110-IS and the older TZ5/TZ4.

Photography Bay confirmed with Nikon, there are no new Nikon DSLRs at PMA. You can now hear Ken Rockwell in the back of your head "the Nikon D40 is the only DSLR you will ever need"

Samsung delivers a BIG SURPRISE! The new NX-series cameras will have an APS-C sensor, and EVF with LiveView replacing the mirror box and optical viewfinder! This is more of a development notice at the moment, as no actual camera with detailed specifications has been announced.

Sigma will be showing some of their anticipated cameras at PMA! The Imaging Insider has a sneak peek from the trade show floor.

Predictions on what to expect at PMA 2009 by Leonard Goh at CNet Asia. This was posted last week, but we missed it!

Ken Rockwell gone wild! He has posted speculated (?) specs for the Nikon D5000. He already knows that it will have the same IQ as the D3. Whatever he is drinking, I want some!

We just finished the first edition of our PMA 2009 expectations, a recap of what to expect next week at PMA 2009.

The Imaging Insider has launched their PMA 2009 special coverage as they are headed to Vegas.

Adorama Imaging Resource Center has posted their predictions for the trade show.

CanonRumors.com has received more pointers hinting at a EF 24-70 f2.8 L IS. A good way for Canon to boost the price and also give Canonites a reason not to get the 3rd party alternatives that will perhaps cost one-third to one-half.

Panasonic announces now a handful of camcorders according to dpnow.com now. So, if it's not now, when will we see the Micro Four Thirds stuff? We know that they now "owe" us a high-def-video version of the Lumix G1 and three new lenses :)

dpnow.com has posted their PMA preview and there we learn some interesting tidbits, including a rumor that other "well known brands" may join Micro Four Thirds.

Canon is working on a Digital Rebel 500D and a new prime EF-S lens says Canon Rumors.

Have questions for Pentax? The Pentax DSLRs blog (not affiliated with Pentax corporate) will be at the trade-show and they will be talking to everyone in the Pentax universe. And they will feature any potentially new Pentax products that may be revealed there.

The official list of exhibitors at the trade show is revealed! Check it out at the Imaging Insider.

Rumormill says there will be a Nikon D5000 DSLR at PMA-2009 to follow-up on the D40/D60. As you may recall, Nikon is running out of model numbers, so they have to "reboot" their naming scheme, otherwise they would have to come up with less user-friendly names such as D40 Mark II or D41 or D51 or D65 or letter-appends (eg D50X).

Panasonic is having an event in Amsterdaam. Will that produce any camera-related announcements? Remember, Panasonic is a big company and makes all sorts of products, so they could be announcing anything from microwave ovens to space-ships!

Tidbits and timeframe for a potential Micro Four Thirds release from Olympus in this forum discussion.

Surprise! A new Olympus Four Thirds DSLR, the E-620, shows up with previews at three major review sites!

Want free admission to the actual PMA trade-show? Imaging Insider tells you how!

Pre-production Sigma DP2 shown at UK trade show.

The Samsung TL320 was leaked and its claim to fame is a 3" OLED display and analog gauges that track battery life and card-storage.

dpreview is accepting questions from users and they plan to ask some of those questions at PMA 2009. Submit your questions. Will they ask them why they keep shooting themselves on the foot with the xD card? And why the silly panorama requirement? And why you can't find the list of authorized dealers on their website?

"Where's the pro gear?" asks PDN Pulse. Did the shiny-silvers eat them? Sadly, that may be so It's only mid-February and we already have almost 90 new digital cameras for 2009! And that's only from the 14 major manufacturers we track. We don't count the other 20 or so second and third tier brands. And only 3 of them support RAW. Maybe the manufacturers need to be hit with an environment waste tax when they produce inconsequential clones!

Rumor from Thailand says to expect five new Olympus DSLRs (iLCs) in 2009.

Leica and Panasonic deny the rumors we mentioned earlier that Panasonic is considering the purchase of Leica (or at least the camera/photography parts).

Digital Camera Review has launched their PMA 2009 special pages.

Meanwhile, the comedian Ken Rockwell has a write-up, a "summary forecast" on the Nikon M1 and MX.

Take the PMA 2009 pulse at the PMA 2009 blog with news and features about the upcoming trade-show. February is a short month, PMA is gonna be here soon!

Rumor-killer: Remember the Nikon promise of something big at the Wedding show? Well, it is not camera-related.

dpreview.com posts their PMA predictions and setup their web site for coverage of the trade show, which is not that far off actually. It's mid-February already!

In this discussion, the OP makes the case why a Nikon D700X (as a D3X clone) does not make sense so soon but instead a 5DMk2-killer is needed. This is speculation.

Wild rumor on the Pentax/Samsung front in the dpreview forums: DSLR with square format sensor which could mean extra benefits.

This is a very soft rumor in the dpreview forums, but it sounds rather reasonable - Nikon D700X coming within eight weeks, using same body but 24mp sensor like the D3X and at the price of $3000. Again, this is a soft rumor.

CanonRumors.com predicts on what we might see from Canon at PMA 2009. Please note there is a difference between "rumor", "speculation" and "prediction".

The Nikon MX (medium format) camera rumors are making a comeback at Nikon Rumors. If such a system were to come out, and considering the price of the Nikon D3X, how many small countries would Nikon ask for?

From the Panasonic forums at dpreview a rumor says that Panasonic may be investigating the possibility of buying Leica... More discussions.

No 1D series at PMA-2009 but expect a ...Rebolution says Photography Bay.

The Panasonic LX3 is NOT discontinued says Panasonic in-forum rep.

An update on Sony DSLRs: PDN Pulse has a statement from Sony confirming that there won't be any new DSLRs at PMA 2009 time. They put the timeframe for new Alpha DSLRs as the summer.

Not that this is a shocker, but a confirmation, there are more lens announcement(s) coming from Nikon this year. This was as part of a Nikon interview at dpreview.com.

This new rumor via the dpreview forums originates from the Shutter Asia forums where one forum user claims that the Sony A200, A300 and A350 will be replaced with models with a newer Engine and things like that. Please note this is a rumor!

Photography Bay has found Nikon D400 place-holder ads, yet another sign that that model name is closer to becoming a reality.

A forum user was told by Panasonic customer support that the LX3 will be discontinued and a new line of products is coming in April 2009. Deal or no deal?

This dpreview forum discussion speculates on the potential of a Canon 1D Mark III replacement. Please note that "speculation" is different from "rumor".

Meanwhile Y Love Photo has a D400 rumor, with lots more megapixels.

Nikon D400 book name leaked at Amazon Germany. Just the book name, no camera details.

NikonWatch.com speculates on what we might see from Nikon. Please note that "speculation" is different from "rumor".

Two new Olympus Micro Four Thirds bodies, the M1 and M100 - rumor coming from Russia.

Is a "Canon 1D Mark III N" coming? Rumor via CanonRumors.com.

Thom Hogan speculates on what PMA 2009 may bring for Nikon. There are no direct links to individual posts, so look in his archives for the January 20 entry if you are reading this in February 2009 or later.


New Camera Announcements in 2009


You can check the complete list (of the 14 major manufacturers we track) in our New Digital Cameras of 2009 Reference page.

You can also see a GIANT snapshot of all the current and recent digital cameras. Be prepared to be overwhelmed by the sheer volume of CLONES!


Rumors that came true
Sure enough, here is the official Sony HX1. Original post: A second source points to a Sony HX-1 superzoom. Details in this rumor update... There's a new Sony HX1 H-series superzoom is coming up says one forum user. As you may recall, Sony has announced a new fun-zoom model in 2009, but nothing yet to follow-up on the Cybershot H50. More details.


This came true as the Pentax P70. Original post: Something from Pentax with an EVF/LCD button? That's what german site Colorfoto.de shows. Developing story....

The Imaging Insider has some news that might interest digital rangefinder fans. A digital rangefinder (R-D1) is coming back as the R-D1X and R-D1xG (G for grip)? More details

Came True: Cosina Voigtlander 20mm f3.5 lens for Pentax and Nikon. The rumor: A Voigtlander 20mm f3.5 lens shows up on the website of (well-known retailer) Map Camera in Japan in Nikon and Pentax flavors.

Came True: See Canon pages. The rumors: In addition to the two leaked Powershots mentioned below by CanonRumors, there's a total of 4+2 new ones leaked at the Canon website. More details. Thanks to one of our readers for the tip: Canon USA leaks two new Powershots, the SD960 IS (wide-angle) and the SD780 IS. Pictures and basic specs at Canon Rumors.

This came true as expected. Here is the original rumor: Something new is coming from Pocket Wizard on Monday notices the Strobist. If you have Flash turned off, the teaser at the PW site is using Flash and it's in the middle of the page.

Nikon announced the Nikkor 35mm f1.8G DX lens. The rumor was true!

Sanyo revealed new hybrids on January 21 - Pocket Lint had a teaser-banner from Sanyo showing a dark outline of their new "hybrid" camera/camcorder line-up to be revealed on January 21st, 2009. And it CAME TRUE


CES 2009


The CES 2009 trade show is now over, and we had around 35 new digital cameras announced during that timeframe. Check the CES round-up at the CES 2009 Situation Room. You can find a list of all the digital cameras announced so far at the New Cameras of 2009 mega-list.


Executive Summary (speculation)


The following are cameras that are very likely to be announced at or by PMA 2009. There will be many more, but they are not as easy to predict as these ones:
  • HD-video version of the Panasonic G1 with three lenses (per the road map)

  • Replacement of the Panasonic TZ5 and TZ4 with presumably the TZ7 and TZ6 at CES 2009

  • Fuji 3D-camera as promised last year

  • Fuji digital cameras using the new Fuji SuperCCD EXR sensor

  • Replacements for the Sony H50 and H10 superzooms

  • Replacement for the Olympus E420 DSLR (E430?)

  • Replacement for the Fuji S100fs giantsumer (S110fs?)

  • Replacement for the Fuji S8100fd (S8200hd?)

  • Sony W300 replacement

  • Kodak Z8612IS replacement

  • and a lot more new cameras


DSLRs and interchangeable lens cameras


CANON: The 1Ds Mark III was an August-2007 baby, while the Mark II came out during Photokina 2004, and the Mark I at the now-legendary PMA 2002. This puts a potential 1Ds Mark IV far far away into the future.

The theme song for the 1D Mark III dedicated to Canon fans is that Coldplay song that says "never meant to cause you trouble, never meant to do you harm". But the Mark III came out in February 2007, the MkII-N in August 2005, the original Mk II in January 2004, and the original 4mp Mk I with the Panasonic sensor in september 2001. Unless Canon is planning a full-frame answer to the Nikon D3, the earliest we could see a cyclical replacement is Fall 2009. But overall, a 1D Mark IV is less unlikely than a 1Ds Mark IV.

Both the D-Rebels and the 50D came out in 2008, with the XSi 450D being the oldest (PMA 2008). Comparatively, the XTi 400D came out in October 2006, while the XT 350D came out in February 2005. So in theory, the XSi will be replaced Fall 2009 or later. UNLESS of course Canon feels that they have to respond to the DSLR-Video meta-craze and release a Rebel with HD-Video that sits between the 50D/40D and XSi 450D. Let's call it Digital Rebel XSv 500D. "v" for video ;-) This is not unprecedented, as in the past Canon has rolled out new sensors with higher-megapixels in the D-Rebels first. So a D-Rebel wouldn't be a shocker if HD-Video was the rationale behind it.


NIKON: With the D3X just announced, and considering the state of the world economy, we doubt we will see a "Nikon MX/Medium Format" at PMA. The "something big" Nikon was promising at the February 2009 big wedding show is most likely the $8000 D3X.

The D3 and D700 are "safe" at the moment, and while there is rumor buzz for a "Nikon D400", the D300 came out 21 months after the D200. That would put a D300-replacement out to May 2010. But of course manufacturers are not contractually obligated to follow those patterns. While HD-video may be pulling in the direction of an earlier release, Nikon is surely aware that the D300 is running essentially unopposed from Canon and since it is able to hold the $1500 price-point even after a year, I personally doubt we'll see a D300-replacement in 2009.

That leaves us to the D40 (Nov 2006), D40x (PMA 2007) and D60 (PMA 2008). Do I see a pattern here? :) Perhaps! But with the D90 already under $900, Nikon may just continue with the D40/D60 duo, and simply keep lowering their prices. One possibility might be a "D60x", a D60 with the D90 sensor and HD-video, thus rotating the D60 into the D40 slot, and the D60X into the D60 slot. And with the D90 continuing to be the first "enthusiastic" DSLR in their line that can AF with old and not-so-old lenses.


OLYMPUS: With the E30 already in the books, the focus is now on the orange prototype - Olympus's entry in the new Micro Four Thirds segment. We hope that Olympus makes an announcement by PMA 2009, and does not repeat the same mistakes they made with Four Thirds.

Speaking of Four Thirds, the E420 and the E410 came out in early March of 2008 and 2007 respectively, so if the pattern holds we could see an Olympus E430 by the time the show opens its doors! On the other hand, the E520 created some separation as it came 14-months instead of 12-months after the E510, which was announced at the same time as the E410.

And what about a flagship? The E-3 was announced in October 2007, putting PMA 2009 at about 17 months after. With the E30 sharing a number of features, is the clock ticking for a replacement or do 4/3rds users have to wait until Fall 2009 or beyond? We don't have any historical patterns to go about, as the E-1 was a unique camera that came out to kickoff this new format.

And what about an E330-type camera?


PANASONIC: Panasonic already revealed that a video-enabled version of the G1 will be coming out in early 2009. And if you project months to the M43rds lens road map, three lenses are coming at PMA for sure:
* 14-140mm f4-5.6 OIS HD (35mm eq = 28-280mm)
* 7-14mm f4 (35mm eq = 14-28mm)
* 20mm f1.7 (35mm eq = 40mm)

As far as regular Four Thirds, Panasonic has hinted that they won't be making any more 4/3rds cameras unless they have a reason to. But the sensors work for both formats so we can safely assume they'll continue to provide those to all interested parties.


PENTAX: The K20D came out in late January 2008, while the K10D was out in September 2006. That seems to hint at an 18-month lifecycle, but it didn't stop the KM K2000 to come out just six-months after the K200D which was shockingly discontinued in Japan. So will we see something from Pentax? If the K30D (or whatever is called) is a sequential update, we'll probably have to wait until Fauxtokina 2009. However, if the new DSLR is coming above, then it's more likely. Especially with the Km/K2000, and the dropping of K20D prices, there is some room for a more advanced Pentax DSLR. One of the rumors for such a thing talked about a 14mp APS-H sensor K30D.


SAMSUNG: In an interview with WDC, the Samsung big bosses said that their next DSLR will come in the second half of 2009 and will be more of delta from the GX20 versus the GX20-vs-GX10 delta. And it will be smaller. What about HD-Video? And how close will it be to whatever Pentax announces?

At the same time, Samsung is working on their "hybrid" smaller format, but they themselves said this won't come out until 2010. Will we get anything at PMA? Maybe some guidance or a development notice?


SONY: With the A900 just coming out, all rumor-radars are fixed on a potential "Alpha A800", a wished-for Sony-equivalent of the Nikon D700, with a 35mm full frame sensor and reasonably affordable price tag.

The Sony Alpha A200 was the first DSLR to be announced at the CES trade show. Will Sony use a 12-month cycle for its consumer DSLRs or instead go with a more traditional 18 or 24 month cycle. Likewise the A300 and A350 came out at PMA 2008, will they get replaced in just 13 months?

And if Sony decided to test the waters of the smaller format iLCs (interchangeable-lens cameras), the CES/PMA time-frame would not be a bad idea. I'm not saying they are planning something like that, but if they were.


LEICA: The S2 MF is coming in the summer at the earliest, and with the M8.2 already out, the spotlight will be on the R-series. Will we get anything? Even a guidance or development notice?


FUJI: Ironically perhaps, the Fuji S5 came out at the same time as another legendary Fuji camera, the F31fd, at the 2006 Photokina trade show. A lot of signs are pointing towards Fuji not releasing another dSLR, but we have no way of knowing either way.


SIGMA: Sigma had announced a sequential update to the SD14, the SD15, which currently resides in the gooey space that is the Sigma development timeline. We don't expect another Sigma DSLR.


RICOH: There was a rumor of Ricoh thinking or planning some sort of a DSLR. Wishful thinking or has some dose of reality? Speaking of Ricoh, there was a wild rumor (or perhaps wishful thinking) of some sort of a digital TLR.


SuperZooms


Fuji introduced their giant-sumer S100fs at PMA 2008, and if the follow-up (let's call it S110fs) follows the S9000/S9100 pattern, then we should see it by March 2009! Those two camera a year apart, but it took Fuji 1.5 years to go from S9100 to S100fs. We can assume that this will be a sequential update, so we should expect something! Infact if Fuji spends its R&D money to simply give it performance and other boosts, while keeping the price competitive, they could win over more users!

But that may not be all. The S8100fd came out in January 2008 following the S8000fd in July 2007. The S8000 was their first 18x zoomer, so the early follow-up might have been a case of the bug-fixers. However the S8100fd is a mid-range superzoom, so it should follow the one-a-year cycle, so expect a Fuji S8200hd to come out. hd because of the HD-video feature they started with the S2000hd in August 2008.

And that may not be all just yet. They also released the S5800 (S800) is select markets, so it's possible to either see that camera propagate to other markets or perhaps see an S5900 (S???) replace it.

Canon has announced their trio of superzooms at Photokina, so we don't expect them to announce anything new superzoom at PMA 2009. Perhaps make the SX1is available to more markets around the world. The only exception perhaps if they decide to follow up the (not-so-successful) TX-1 with another hybrid.

Panasonic has a tradition of replacing their TZ-series models at CES, so we should expect a TZ7 and TZ6 duo to replace TZ5 and TZ4 at around CES 2009... The FZ28 and its predecessor the FZ18 came out with the July announcement, so we expect that to continue... The big question is whether there will be a replacement for the FZ50. The LX2, which came out at the same time, got its replacement with the LX3. So is the big FZ-series line over? Or not? With the introduction of Micro Four Thirds, signs point to no more, but let's not lose hope just yet :-)

Nikon: The P80 came out in April 2008, but that was a year with an early PMA. So it is not unreasonable to see a replacement at PMA 2009. If so, can we hope for improvements or just a sequential re-release? Nikon could go a long way to apologize for the NRW-P6000 situation by giving the P80-replacement a straight RAW option... Another possibility is perhaps the return to the "fun zoom" segment. The last one Nikon tried was the Coolpix s10 which came out in August 2006, so it is really long overdue!

Sony: Will the third time be a charm? Neither Canon nor Sony have so far been able to out-fun the Panasonic TZ-series. Will Sony be able to do it with their replacement to the Cybershot H10 (Jan 2008) that is certainly due by PMA.

But the fun-zoom is not the only one crying for attention. Sony has been "left behind" in the zoom-ratio wars, with even Canon biting the bullet and going to 20X. The H50 has "only" a 15x zoom ratio, and we expect this will be "corrected". Perhaps we will see two of them, one at 15x and another "jumping" to 18x or 20x.

Olympus gave everyone a headache by the rapid announcement of similarly-spec'ed models, going from the SP-560uz to the SP-570uz and back to the SP-565uz. Whether planned or forced by circumstances, Olympus has introduced two superzooms each of the last two years, one in January and one in the summer. In theory, we shouldn't see a similar model until the summer spot, but we wouldn't be surprised either way. They have to be thrifty with the model names, so an SP-575uz is more likely than an SP-580uz.

Casio made a big bang literally and figuratively with the EX-F1, but they kept the camera away from the "internet peoplez" and that, along with a prohibitive price, put it in the background. Casio tried again, this time with a lower price and more "typical" configuration, the EX-FH20. While the latter is too new, the EX-F1 will be turning one in January. Will Casio attempt a version II, with a lower price and improvements???

Samsung took forever and a day to come up with a superzoom camera before finally announcing their TZ-killer fun-zoom HZ1 at Photokina 2008. Will that be it, or will they also try their hand at the mid-range with an 18x/20x superzoom? Let's not forget they are the ones who brought us that giant Samsung Pro 815, the last of the 8mp 2/3" sensor users.

Kodak is not shy about launching new superzooms left and right. Their current line-up is headlined by the RAW-bearing Z1015-is which came out in the summer of 2008, and the Z1012-is which came out the previous summer. So that means their second tier zoom, the Z8612is (CES 2008) will get a replacement at CES 2009 - it will likely add the 10mp 1/2.3" sensor and remain at 12x IS.


Compacts with RAW


We'd love to see more of these, but unless another manufacturer decides to join the party, we probably won't see anything new here. The LX3, G10, P6000 and GX-200 all came out between June and Photokina 2008. There may be some hope for perhaps a GRD III, with the GRD II coming out in October 2007 and the GRD I in September 2005.

And there are very good reasons to do these, for example, Sony could re-discover the V1 or V3 just like Canon rediscovered the G-series. Similarly, Olympus could rediscover their C-series!

Another possibility is a 3rd Sigma DP-series camera. Way back in early 2008, the Sigma founder hinted as a DP-series camera with a zoom lens. We already have the DP1 in-hand and the DP2 in the pipeline. Of course given that we are on "Sigma time" an announcement at PMA 2009 could mean delivery by PMA 2090 ;-)


Compacts with 1/1.8"+ sensors


The manufacturers of these give them bigger sensors but deprave their users of the joy (and pain) of RAW!

The harbinger of megapixel-doom was the Sony W300 (Febr 2008) at 13.5 megapixels, before getting followed up by 15-megapixel cameras from other makers. Will Sony park at 15mp or boldly go to 16mp? We cringe to think either way, although the W300 did get some good reviews. However, what if the technological advances of the newer sensors were applied to sensor with fewer megapixels? Wouldn't that be a better trade-off? What-if's aside, we will get a new model, be it Cybershot W310 or W350 or W400.

The most exciting of the lot might be the Fuji 3D digital camera which will be using the touted Fuji SuperCCD EXR sensor that promises miracles and wonders in terms of noise and dynamic range. We hope that this camera will have RAW, but considering Fuji's recent history, it's more likely that it won't :-(

Canon's non-announcement was news in 2008 as the (Aug-2007) Canon A650-IS did not see its A660-is replacement on the horizon. Does that mean Canon was taking a breather or is that the end of 1/1.7"-based A-series cameras? If yes, that would be very sad, since they are also removing PSAM from them. Bad Canon, bad!

And it is here where we will likely see at least two from Kodak, jumping from the 12mp sensors of 2008, to 14mp or even 15mp. We are talking about replacements for the Z1285 and V1273. We don't recall if their deputies (Z1085 and V1073) are also using 1/1.7" sensors but if they are, those may (or may not) get refreshed with 1/1.7" sensors or just go to the 1/2.33".

Others with "pending" updates are the Pentax "Walmart" S12, the Casio-equivalent, and other friends.

But the most interesting of all might be the Fuji F100fd replacement. The F100fd came out in late January 2008, and Fuji will be having a new SuperCCD EXR sensor to showcase. While we hope that they revitalize the E-series or come up with a more advanced F-series model, the most realistic outcome is a replacement (F110fd? F120fd?) using the new EXR sensor!

Also, Fuji has been on a near six-month hop of the 1/1.7"+ F-series models, with the F60fd (Aug 2008), F100fd (Jan 2008), F50fd (July 2007), F40fd (Jan 2007), F31fd (Sept 2006). So if we don't get an F100fd-replacement, we will likely get a F70fd or something like that. Maybe...


Smaller Compacts


There will be boatloads of new cameras in this segment. If we went through them all, this post would be 3 times as long and that would guarantee no one would read it :)

The most interesting question is whether Canon returns the PSAM to the A-series.

We expect to see a cyclical replacement of the Panasonic LZ10 and LZ8, although after the LZ8 got a "highly recommended"by dpreview, they should seriously consider keeping it around longer :-)

Based on historical patterns, we should expect waves of new models from Kodak and Samsung early in the year, followed by Olympus, Fuji, Sony and Canon. Also Panasonic, Nikon and just about everybody else :-)


PMA 2009 coverage on the net


Past Trade-Show Covarage


Feedback, Comments, Omissions, Errata?
This is a giant post so it is bound to have typos, omissions, and errors. Please leave a comment or send an email if you notice any.


What is Fauxtokina?
Fauxtokina is the time period in a year that does not have a Photokina trade show, and denotes roughly the same time period. Thus the "faux" in the name :-)


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